I am personally looking for a few things that will concern me about escalation:
Japan and Finland making active land claims to Russia (actively reoccupying disputed land with troops)
Europe putting peace keepers in Western Ukraine (which will create a casus belli for war with Russia), specifically France and the UK. I mean, Poland as well, but if Poland says they are putting peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, Russia should either back off or assume war.
South Korean troops in Ukraine. (Ridiculous given their current chaos, but stranger things have happened in the last year).
Other than that, the russian frog has been very well boiled for 3 years. Even China has probably gone back to the drawing board on a taiwan invasion, and added a delay until 10 millions drones are available.
I do have concerns trump will pull the us back in europe, making the second item above possible if not likely. The first trump presidency shook us primacy in europe, and the second may see it start to unravel. If europe has to take russia alone, the us should consider china a personal problem from now on (as well as any other concerns not near europe), as no one will see value in going to war with a fair-weather ally.
<i>Finland making active land claims to Russia (actively reoccupying disputed land with troops)</i>
I can guarantee you that there is no territory the Finns would try to reclaim from Russia. The Continuation war pretty much sated any future thought to regain territory seized by the Soviet Union
Finland won’t make any claims. This much is certain.
The only way we would even consider restoring the stolen lands would be IF the Russian Federation falls and IF the initiative for reunification would come from the Karelian Republic.
That was pretty wild development, yes. But still, we will not make any territorial claims. Doing so would effectively render the protection provided by NATO’s Article 5 null. We would once again be alone against a nuclear power with much larger resources than we could ever have.
I am personally looking for a few things that will concern me about escalation:
Japan and Finland making active land claims to Russia (actively reoccupying disputed land with troops)
Europe putting peace keepers in Western Ukraine (which will create a casus belli for war with Russia), specifically France and the UK. I mean, Poland as well, but if Poland says they are putting peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, Russia should either back off or assume war.
South Korean troops in Ukraine. (Ridiculous given their current chaos, but stranger things have happened in the last year).
Other than that, the russian frog has been very well boiled for 3 years. Even China has probably gone back to the drawing board on a taiwan invasion, and added a delay until 10 millions drones are available.
I do have concerns trump will pull the us back in europe, making the second item above possible if not likely. The first trump presidency shook us primacy in europe, and the second may see it start to unravel. If europe has to take russia alone, the us should consider china a personal problem from now on (as well as any other concerns not near europe), as no one will see value in going to war with a fair-weather ally.
Can you link me to more information about there being south korean troops in ukraine? I knew about the north korean troops.
<i>Finland making active land claims to Russia (actively reoccupying disputed land with troops)</i>
I can guarantee you that there is no territory the Finns would try to reclaim from Russia. The Continuation war pretty much sated any future thought to regain territory seized by the Soviet Union
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Finland won’t make any claims. This much is certain.
The only way we would even consider restoring the stolen lands would be IF the Russian Federation falls and IF the initiative for reunification would come from the Karelian Republic.
I agree with both of you in principle, but who really had N Korea troops in meat wave assaults on their 2024 bingo cards?
That was pretty wild development, yes. But still, we will not make any territorial claims. Doing so would effectively render the protection provided by NATO’s Article 5 null. We would once again be alone against a nuclear power with much larger resources than we could ever have.
So we won’t be doing that.